Agriculture and climate change is a wicked paradox. On one hand agriculture, forestry and other land use contribute over a fifth of global GHG emissions exacerbating the natural disasters, on the other UNFCC estimates a damage of over USD 108 billion to crops and livestock from natural disasters between 2008 and 2018. Being a perpetrator and victim of climate change, the agriculture sector needs unconventional thinking and an innovation mindset to break the wicked cycle. A third of world’s food supply (80% of developing world’s) produced by smallholder farmers is at risk from Climate Change. Juxtapose this to an expected increase of 60% in global food demand by 2050 and we have a brimming volcano of food scarcity.

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Over 2.5 billion lives are supported by the agricultural production systems, it is therefore natural that innovations, disruptions and adaptations in the field will have political, human and socioeconomic ramifications. As the rest of the world is talking about Industrialization 4.0 and Artificial intelligence taking over humanity, the world of agriculture cannot be left behind and needs to examine the following aspects afresh:

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• Technology for transformation: The relationship between technology, nature and humans is often projected as being at loggerheads especially in new frontiers such as gene editing, mechanization and chemical use. The realities of the fickle climate world need a reexamination of polarized positions (we saw the pitfalls of only organic approach in Sri Lanka) and explore a redesign of innovation systems (e.g. patents for new crop varieties). This also requires blending of capital (public and private) with different objectives to support food security and climate resilience focused agricultural innovations.
• Policymaking – focus on tomorrow not today: The policy priorities need a new equilibrium, shifting focus from minimum support price to how farming as an enterprise can be made profitable and climate proof. This may require a combination of market-based mechanisms such as embedded financing models, unlocking carbon credits, and new direct producer to consumer bridges, as well as social security measures in the form of living income commitments, micro-equity for farming as an enterprise and climate financing for innovation adoption. McKinsey suggests - 50% of farmers do not participate in carbon programs on account of low ROI. FAO suggests that distress economic migration is particularly acute among rural youth. Unless farming is made future ready, less risky and profitable, climate change readiness will continue to suffer and food scarcity in future is imminent from abandoned farms.
• India’s unique position: India’s position in the top agricultural commodity exporters in the world and its large population highlights its vital role in global food security. Climate change is severely affecting land suitability and reports suggest India in rice alone is set to lose 450,000 square kilometers of usable land. It is also the third largest ecosystem in the Start-Up world and is in a unique position to leverage its demographic dividend for creating a wave of entrepreneurship. There is also a significant thrust on setting up FPOs to help farmers organize themselves and engage with market forces. Innovations in business models, technology and financing are key to benefit from this interplay of endowed agribusiness potential, youth energy, spirit of cooperation and startup potential that can act as a counterforce to disruption from climate change and offer new ways of addressing food security issues. Multistakeholder partnerships and global R & D alliances can both unlock capital for these innovations as well as provide a large base for testing them.

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Solutions to the burgeoning problem of climate change and resultant threat to global food security cannot come without wholehearted participation of world’s estimated 500 million small farms and its 1.2 billion young people. India’s growing prominence in the business and financial world, a large captive base of small farms and demographic benefits offers optimism as a potential innovation hub to solve for this wicked paradox.

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